JP Morgan CEO-Jamie Dimon 致股東的信

全美最大銀行之一, JP Morgan的CEO, Jamie Dimon的股東信是想要了解金融和投資的人必讀的文章. 他在四月八號剛寫了一份, 篇長38頁的股東信, 我擷取一些段落在下面:


On Rationality: Our long-term view means that we do not manage to temporary P/E ratios — the tail should not wag the dog

  • Price/earnings (P/E) ratios, like stock prices, are temporary and volatile and should not be used to run and build a business. We have built one great franchise, our way, which has been quite successful for some time. As long as the business being built is a real franchise and can stand the test of time, one should not overreact to Mr. Market. This does not mean we should not listen to what investors are saying – it just means we should not overreact to their comments – particularly if their views reflect temporary factors.  I often have received bad advice about what we should do to earn a higher P/E ratio
  • Before the crisis, I was told that we were too conservatively financed and that more leverage would help our earnings. Outsiders said that one of our weaknesses in fixed income trading was that we didn’t do enough collateralized debt obligations and structured investment vehicles. And others said that we couldn’t afford to invest in initiatives like our own branded credit cards and the buildout of our Chase Private Client franchise during the crisis.
  • "Examples like these are exactly the reasons why one should not follow the herd."

On Management: Think like a long-term investor, manage like an operator

  • So our ultimate goal is to think like a longterm investor – build great franchises, strengthen moats and have good throughthe-cycle financial results. Achieve the benefits of scale and eliminate the negatives. Develop great long-term achievable strategies. And manage the business relentlessly, like a great operator. Finally, continue to develop excellent management that keeps it all going. As Thomas Edison said, “Vision without execution is hallucination.

On Economy: Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial markets

  • The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis. Triggering events could be geopolitical (the 1973 Middle East crisis), a recession where the Fed rapidly increases interest rates (the 1980-1982 recession), a commodities price collapse (oil in the late 1980s), the commercial real estate crisis (in the early 1990s), the Asian crisis (in 1997), so-called “bubbles” (the 2000 Internet bubble
    and the 2008 mortgage/housing bubble), etc. While the past crises had different roots (you could spend a lot of time arguing the degree to which geopolitical, economic or
    purely financial factors caused each crisis), they generally had a strong effect across the financial markets. 
  • While crises look different, the anatomy of how they play out does have common threads. When a crisis starts, investors try to protect themselves. First, they sell the assets they believe are at the root of the problem. Second, they generally look to put more of their money in safe havens, commonly selling riskier assets like credit and equities and buying safer assets by putting deposits in strong banks, buying Treasuries or purchasing very safe money market funds. Often at one point in a crisis, investors can sell only less risky assets if they need to raise cash because, virtually, there may be no market for the riskier ones. These investors include individuals, corporations, mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds – pretty much everyone – each individually doing the right thing for themselves but, collectively, creating the market disruption that we’ve witnessed before. This is the “run-on-the-market” phenomenon that you saw in the last crisis.

想讀整篇文章的人,可以到JP Morgan投資人關係找,或點這連結 (PDF).

The China Story-張磊,王石,習近平

(Hillhouse Capital Logo)

(Hillhouse Capital Logo)

1. Hillhouse Capital-張磊


中國的最頂尖的投資公司,Hillhouse Capital.創辦人張磊自從2005年由美國耶魯大學投資兩千萬美金,至今管理規模有一百八十億美金,從2005到2012年績效為每年52%,靠著長期持有公司創造將近19倍的報酬.當初在耶魯大學校務基金的投資長,David Sensen底下工作.






Low-profile Beijing fund with envious record (2014/06/04)

Zhang Lei has Lunch with the FT (2014/06/20)

(Note: 若金融時報要求要登入帳號,你只要把標題複製到Google搜尋後就可以直接讀取)

At Yale, Zhang read everything he could. “When I learnt that annual reports were free, I sent away to every company in the S&P 500,” he says. “I couldn’t believe they were free! I learnt so much from the management discussion section about business and things like return on capital and return on equity. It was very good training.”
— Zhang Lei with Financial Times



2. 萬科創辦人-王石





— 王石 at 中國企業家雜誌

3. 中國主席-習近平


最後還有謝謝我朋友Mike的分享,一則長篇英文原文文章,New Yorker報導中國主席-習近平.Pretty good read.

Born Red (2015/04/06)

Lee Kuan Yew 李光耀的生平及影片




— 中時電子報


(New York Times: Lee Kuan Yew, Founding Father and First Premier of Singapore, Dies at 91)


  • 被誉为国有资本运营典范的“淡马锡模式”,也是李光耀的杰作之一。1974年,新加坡政府决定建立淡马锡公司,由新加坡财政部全资拥有,专门经营和管理原国家投入到各类政联企业(与政府关联的公司)资本的国家资产,以“通过有效的监督和商业性战略投资来培育世界级公司。” 公司成立近40年来,年均净资产收益率超过18%,远远超过同期私有企业的经营业绩。也正因如此,新加坡淡马锡的运营模式被称为国有资本运营的典范。




以下是李光耀與Charlie Rose在2013年,約52分鐘的影片:


I always tried to be correct, not politically correct.
— Lee Kuan Yew

Berkshire Hathaway 50週年

Dear Berkshire Groupies,

今年是巴菲特的公司,波克夏Berkshire Hathaway的50週年紀念日,

Bloomberg的新聞,「What to Expect From Buffett’s 50th Anniversary Letter」中提到今年的年報是特別版,除了字數更多以外,合夥人Charlie Munger也會難得的在Berkshire年報中分享他的看法.

熱騰騰的2014年報剛在早上8點出爐,有興趣的人可以到這看:Berkshire Hathaway Website



Investing, Oil, Greece, and Business

Source: Columbia Business School
  • 這是巴菲特在1984年於Columbia Business School撰寫的一篇文章,很經典,建議任何對投資有興趣的人一定要看.
  • 1984/Columbia Business School

-Youtube: Aswath Damodaran, "Valuation: Four Lessons to Take Away"

  • NYU教授Damodaran將投資的觀念用很簡單得方式陳述給學生.
  • “I am fascinated about valuation. And I will tell you upfront what I think about valuation. I think valuation is simple. Fundamentally, anybody can do valuation. I think we choose to make it complex. Whose We? The people who practice valuation. Why? Because that’s how you make a living. You’ve got to cover things up with layers of complexity, keep people away." [3:04] 



-Youtube: 經濟機器是怎樣運行的(中文)

On Oil


"Oil, fear, and the rational investor"

  • 價值投資,管理$900億美金Oaktree Capital的Howard Marks談論油價.
  • 2015-01-22/Fortune

-"Who Will Rule the Oil Market?"

  • Daniel Yergin談論油價及油的歷史.
  • 2015-01-23/New York Times

-EIA:Weekly Petroleum Status Report Highlights (PDF)

  • 美國能源資訊協會指稱,US Crude Oil的庫存在425百萬桶,為80年以來最高.
  • "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years"

On Greek Crisis


On Business


The Extraordinary Story of America’s Most Successful Industry


內容提到,Credit Suisse以產業為區別整理各個產業長期來講的報酬率.長期來講,企業的獲利能力將會反應在股票的報酬率上.

Credit Suisse published a report this week on the performance of every major American industry from 1900 to 2010. One dollar in the average American industry was worth $38,255 by 2010. That’s an annual return of about 10% per year. Some did far better: $1 invested in food companies was worth about $700,000 by 2010. Chemical and electrical equipment companies returned about the same.

Then there’s tobacco, which was in a league of its own.

One dollar invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 was worth $6.3 million by 2010. That’s 165 times greater than the average industry.

在Credit Suisse出版的報告中(link),我擷取幾張圖表供參考.從這些圖中可以看到煙草類的報酬率是最高的,但即便持有的是產業平均的報酬率,從1900投資美國平均產業的$1美元到2010年也能變成$38,255美元,三萬八千倍的報酬率,約9.6%的年複合增長率.

Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015