JP Morgan CEO-Jamie Dimon 致股東的信

全美最大銀行之一, JP Morgan的CEO, Jamie Dimon的股東信是想要了解金融和投資的人必讀的文章. 他在四月八號剛寫了一份, 篇長38頁的股東信, 我擷取一些段落在下面:

 

On Rationality: Our long-term view means that we do not manage to temporary P/E ratios — the tail should not wag the dog

  • Price/earnings (P/E) ratios, like stock prices, are temporary and volatile and should not be used to run and build a business. We have built one great franchise, our way, which has been quite successful for some time. As long as the business being built is a real franchise and can stand the test of time, one should not overreact to Mr. Market. This does not mean we should not listen to what investors are saying – it just means we should not overreact to their comments – particularly if their views reflect temporary factors.  I often have received bad advice about what we should do to earn a higher P/E ratio
  • Before the crisis, I was told that we were too conservatively financed and that more leverage would help our earnings. Outsiders said that one of our weaknesses in fixed income trading was that we didn’t do enough collateralized debt obligations and structured investment vehicles. And others said that we couldn’t afford to invest in initiatives like our own branded credit cards and the buildout of our Chase Private Client franchise during the crisis.
  • "Examples like these are exactly the reasons why one should not follow the herd."

On Management: Think like a long-term investor, manage like an operator

  • So our ultimate goal is to think like a longterm investor – build great franchises, strengthen moats and have good throughthe-cycle financial results. Achieve the benefits of scale and eliminate the negatives. Develop great long-term achievable strategies. And manage the business relentlessly, like a great operator. Finally, continue to develop excellent management that keeps it all going. As Thomas Edison said, “Vision without execution is hallucination.

On Economy: Some things never change — there will be another crisis, and its impact will be felt by the financial markets

  • The trigger to the next crisis will not be the same as the trigger to the last one – but there will be another crisis. Triggering events could be geopolitical (the 1973 Middle East crisis), a recession where the Fed rapidly increases interest rates (the 1980-1982 recession), a commodities price collapse (oil in the late 1980s), the commercial real estate crisis (in the early 1990s), the Asian crisis (in 1997), so-called “bubbles” (the 2000 Internet bubble
    and the 2008 mortgage/housing bubble), etc. While the past crises had different roots (you could spend a lot of time arguing the degree to which geopolitical, economic or
    purely financial factors caused each crisis), they generally had a strong effect across the financial markets. 
  • While crises look different, the anatomy of how they play out does have common threads. When a crisis starts, investors try to protect themselves. First, they sell the assets they believe are at the root of the problem. Second, they generally look to put more of their money in safe havens, commonly selling riskier assets like credit and equities and buying safer assets by putting deposits in strong banks, buying Treasuries or purchasing very safe money market funds. Often at one point in a crisis, investors can sell only less risky assets if they need to raise cash because, virtually, there may be no market for the riskier ones. These investors include individuals, corporations, mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds – pretty much everyone – each individually doing the right thing for themselves but, collectively, creating the market disruption that we’ve witnessed before. This is the “run-on-the-market” phenomenon that you saw in the last crisis.

想讀整篇文章的人,可以到JP Morgan投資人關係找,或點這連結 (PDF).

The China Story-張磊,王石,習近平

(Hillhouse Capital Logo)

(Hillhouse Capital Logo)

1. Hillhouse Capital-張磊

 

中國的最頂尖的投資公司,Hillhouse Capital.創辦人張磊自從2005年由美國耶魯大學投資兩千萬美金,至今管理規模有一百八十億美金,從2005到2012年績效為每年52%,靠著長期持有公司創造將近19倍的報酬.當初在耶魯大學校務基金的投資長,David Sensen底下工作.
(耶魯大學的基金是全美第一,有興趣的人可以點這裡

 

這裡有紐約時報在2015-04-03報導張磊(中文):

紐約時報耶魯畢業生張磊:研究能力造就億萬富翁投資人

 

以下是英國金融時報在2012年與張磊的面試及報導(英文):

Low-profile Beijing fund with envious record (2014/06/04)

Zhang Lei has Lunch with the FT (2014/06/20)

(Note: 若金融時報要求要登入帳號,你只要把標題複製到Google搜尋後就可以直接讀取)

At Yale, Zhang read everything he could. “When I learnt that annual reports were free, I sent away to every company in the S&P 500,” he says. “I couldn’t believe they were free! I learnt so much from the management discussion section about business and things like return on capital and return on equity. It was very good training.”
— Zhang Lei with Financial Times

點選圖片或上方的文字做連結.

 


2. 萬科創辦人-王石

 

再分享一篇,中國房地產大亨王石與中國企業家雜誌的文章:

王石:为什么美国不像中国一样玩速度?

去哈佛到底有哪些收获?课堂把脉,书海畅游固然重要,实际案例更像是美国商业社会运行的一部活教材。游学期间,他参加了万科项目旧金山那次开业仪式,“结果我一到现场就感慨,万科20多年了,从来没有拿过这么好的地。我们到了美国之后,拿的一块位置非常好的地,是旧金山市中心一个老邮局的停车厂。你在那里不用搞台下交易,完全是公开透明的市场。”房地产的核心是位置,美国标志应在纽约,在纽约就要在曼哈顿,在曼哈顿就要在其中心。

王石作为企业家对美国的社会治理观察得入木三分:为什么美国不像中国一样玩速度?因为美国曾经为过快的增长付出过代价。他还谈到,比如美国边检,效率非常高,入境高峰窗口顿时会增多,有关窗口多数办事人员常常会使用中文。不像北京的边检都是俊男美女。他认为,美国是善于经营治理的国家,表现在合理地运用人才,把各种不同的劳动力有机地组合在一块。
— 王石 at 中國企業家雜誌

3. 中國主席-習近平

 

最後還有謝謝我朋友Mike的分享,一則長篇英文原文文章,New Yorker報導中國主席-習近平.Pretty good read.

Born Red (2015/04/06)


Lee Kuan Yew 李光耀的生平及影片


年輕的時候我對政治並不了解,且沒有很大的興趣,但後來了解到一個社會要變好,除了要關心議題以外,更重要的就是把好的故事傳出去.

新加坡前總理李光耀今天過世,享年91歲.對於他的生平不了解的人,以下是中時電子報的介紹:

享年91歲的李光耀是新加坡首任總理,同時也是新加坡現任總理李顯龍的父親。近些年,李光耀已經淡出新加坡的政治舞臺和公眾視野,但由於他是新加坡政壇極具影響力的人物之一,其健康狀況一直受到各界關注。

李光耀被譽為新加坡「國父」,他將彈丸島國新加坡打造成為「亞洲四小龍」之一,其政治生涯可謂波瀾壯闊。李光耀究竟是如何一步步成長為一名譽滿全球的偉人,他的家庭、童年、學生時代以及工作經歷又給其日後成為一國元首帶來怎樣潛移默化的影響呢?
— 中時電子報


紐約時報也有簡單介紹一下李光耀,連結在這:

(New York Times: Lee Kuan Yew, Founding Father and First Premier of Singapore, Dies at 91)


(人民網:建立“淡马锡模式”)
 

  • 被誉为国有资本运营典范的“淡马锡模式”,也是李光耀的杰作之一。1974年,新加坡政府决定建立淡马锡公司,由新加坡财政部全资拥有,专门经营和管理原国家投入到各类政联企业(与政府关联的公司)资本的国家资产,以“通过有效的监督和商业性战略投资来培育世界级公司。” 公司成立近40年来,年均净资产收益率超过18%,远远超过同期私有企业的经营业绩。也正因如此,新加坡淡马锡的运营模式被称为国有资本运营的典范。

以及一篇好的文章:

淡马锡执行董事兼首席执行长何晶女士在“亚洲最佳商业领袖”颁奖晚宴上的致词

从淡马锡成立伊始,新加坡政府就对其采取完全放手的管理模式。新加坡政府对淡马锡公司不提供任何补贴。
我们投资组合中的企业允许失败,正如高尔夫鞋厂商后来所遭遇的一样。在那种情况下,无论是淡马锡,还是新加坡政府,都不会专门施以援手。
基于这样的责任制,投资组合公司会负责做出他们自己的决策。政府自身严格自律,不参与公司任何的商业决策。淡马锡同样如此。
以新加坡航空公司(或我们在新加坡简称为“SIA(新航)”)为例......
 


以下是李光耀與Charlie Rose在2013年,約52分鐘的影片:

及1967年年輕時的李光耀談論美國及越戰,約26分鐘的影片.

I always tried to be correct, not politically correct.
— Lee Kuan Yew

Berkshire Hathaway 50週年


Dear Berkshire Groupies,


今年是巴菲特的公司,波克夏Berkshire Hathaway的50週年紀念日,

Bloomberg的新聞,「What to Expect From Buffett’s 50th Anniversary Letter」中提到今年的年報是特別版,除了字數更多以外,合夥人Charlie Munger也會難得的在Berkshire年報中分享他的看法.
 

熱騰騰的2014年報剛在早上8點出爐,有興趣的人可以到這看:Berkshire Hathaway Website

Enjoy!

 


Investing, Oil, Greece, and Business


Source: Columbia Business School
  • 這是巴菲特在1984年於Columbia Business School撰寫的一篇文章,很經典,建議任何對投資有興趣的人一定要看.
  • 1984/Columbia Business School
 

-Youtube: Aswath Damodaran, "Valuation: Four Lessons to Take Away"

  • NYU教授Damodaran將投資的觀念用很簡單得方式陳述給學生.
  • “I am fascinated about valuation. And I will tell you upfront what I think about valuation. I think valuation is simple. Fundamentally, anybody can do valuation. I think we choose to make it complex. Whose We? The people who practice valuation. Why? Because that’s how you make a living. You’ve got to cover things up with layers of complexity, keep people away." [3:04] 

 

 

-Youtube: 經濟機器是怎樣運行的(中文)


On Oil

 

"Oil, fear, and the rational investor"

  • 價值投資,管理$900億美金Oaktree Capital的Howard Marks談論油價.
  • 2015-01-22/Fortune

-"Who Will Rule the Oil Market?"

  • Daniel Yergin談論油價及油的歷史.
  • 2015-01-23/New York Times

-EIA:Weekly Petroleum Status Report Highlights (PDF)

  • 美國能源資訊協會指稱,US Crude Oil的庫存在425百萬桶,為80年以來最高.
  • "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years"

On Greek Crisis

 


On Business

 

The Extraordinary Story of America’s Most Successful Industry

Fools.com整理的一篇有趣的文章.

內容提到,Credit Suisse以產業為區別整理各個產業長期來講的報酬率.長期來講,企業的獲利能力將會反應在股票的報酬率上.

Credit Suisse published a report this week on the performance of every major American industry from 1900 to 2010. One dollar in the average American industry was worth $38,255 by 2010. That’s an annual return of about 10% per year. Some did far better: $1 invested in food companies was worth about $700,000 by 2010. Chemical and electrical equipment companies returned about the same.

Then there’s tobacco, which was in a league of its own.

One dollar invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 was worth $6.3 million by 2010. That’s 165 times greater than the average industry.
— Fools.com

在Credit Suisse出版的報告中(link),我擷取幾張圖表供參考.從這些圖中可以看到煙草類的報酬率是最高的,但即便持有的是產業平均的報酬率,從1900投資美國平均產業的$1美元到2010年也能變成$38,255美元,三萬八千倍的報酬率,約9.6%的年複合增長率.


Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015