Investing, Oil, Greece, and Business

Source: Columbia Business School
  • 這是巴菲特在1984年於Columbia Business School撰寫的一篇文章,很經典,建議任何對投資有興趣的人一定要看.
  • 1984/Columbia Business School

-Youtube: Aswath Damodaran, "Valuation: Four Lessons to Take Away"

  • NYU教授Damodaran將投資的觀念用很簡單得方式陳述給學生.
  • “I am fascinated about valuation. And I will tell you upfront what I think about valuation. I think valuation is simple. Fundamentally, anybody can do valuation. I think we choose to make it complex. Whose We? The people who practice valuation. Why? Because that’s how you make a living. You’ve got to cover things up with layers of complexity, keep people away." [3:04] 



-Youtube: 經濟機器是怎樣運行的(中文)

On Oil


"Oil, fear, and the rational investor"

  • 價值投資,管理$900億美金Oaktree Capital的Howard Marks談論油價.
  • 2015-01-22/Fortune

-"Who Will Rule the Oil Market?"

  • Daniel Yergin談論油價及油的歷史.
  • 2015-01-23/New York Times

-EIA:Weekly Petroleum Status Report Highlights (PDF)

  • 美國能源資訊協會指稱,US Crude Oil的庫存在425百萬桶,為80年以來最高.
  • "U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at the highest level for this time of year in at least the last 80 years"

On Greek Crisis


On Business


The Extraordinary Story of America’s Most Successful Industry


內容提到,Credit Suisse以產業為區別整理各個產業長期來講的報酬率.長期來講,企業的獲利能力將會反應在股票的報酬率上.

Credit Suisse published a report this week on the performance of every major American industry from 1900 to 2010. One dollar in the average American industry was worth $38,255 by 2010. That’s an annual return of about 10% per year. Some did far better: $1 invested in food companies was worth about $700,000 by 2010. Chemical and electrical equipment companies returned about the same.

Then there’s tobacco, which was in a league of its own.

One dollar invested in tobacco stocks in 1900 was worth $6.3 million by 2010. That’s 165 times greater than the average industry.

在Credit Suisse出版的報告中(link),我擷取幾張圖表供參考.從這些圖中可以看到煙草類的報酬率是最高的,但即便持有的是產業平均的報酬率,從1900投資美國平均產業的$1美元到2010年也能變成$38,255美元,三萬八千倍的報酬率,約9.6%的年複合增長率.

Source: Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2015